Fragile Sovereignties

The recent crises brewing between the US and Russia at the expense of Ukrainian authority, legitimacy and sovereignty, has become a rather heated debate on how to define one's sovereignty and who decides upon such a rather sensitive subject.

Ukraine and Russia have always had a historical bond, in which Kiev was originally the capital of Kievan Rus until its sacking by the Mongols in the early 13th century C.E. When the Soviet Union emerged, Kiev (and Kharkov for a short while) became the official capital(s) of Soviet Ukraine and an important city due to its strategic position and economic impact presiding over a very rich land of resources, mainly agricultural. As for Crimea, thus small block of land has had a rather far more superior significance for the Russia Tsars than the entire land mass of Ukraine itself, especially since Catherine the Great and her wars with the Ottoman Empire. It's location on the Black Sea has given the Russian empire an important access to the Mediterranean Sea (the hub of most world powers historically) and access to the most important trade routes. Like India was perceived of as the crown jewel of Victorian Britain, Crimea has similar relevance to much of Russia's imperial and modern history.

But nations are carved out not by borders but by mutual understandings and social contracts. Agreements between individuals that choose to live in a certain way, under a certain government and within a certain environment the would help brew a series of circumstances suitable for the mindsets involved. Whether it be language, traditions, literature, religion or politics that binds us, it all comes down to what we chose for ourselves. Choice is the foremost fundamental element of liberty. How we make our choices defines who we may become. Ukraine made a choice to be independent from the USSR. And Ukraine has made a choice to be part of a collective group, such as the EU, believing it is for its best interests, ever since the successful democratic turn of events from the 2014 coloured revolution that ousted a pro-Kremlin leader. That can never be contested or disputed in any shape or form under international law. But politics will always get in the way. For as Machiavelli once stated, "There are no morals in politics". As the current umbrella of international law is dictated by a certain group of countries that have their own personal interests to consider. And those same countries are reigned by a select few that also have their own personal goals in deciding on how such governments or laws play out their roles in shaping their future courses. This is a game of power. And in such games there shall always be those that lose it all. And such games are played at the expense of not the players themselves but on the spectators. Like fans of a football game, the players may play the game out of love for it and win/lose they will shake hands with each other and move on from it, while having earned the big bucks. While the fans, especially the hooligans amongst them, may take things quite personal and commit dangerous acts that can cause more damage than good, which only impacts them negatively. For they are impacted by their emotions with the onset of such games. Every movie or show aims to play with the crowds’ feelings and emotions. And politics is simply a show where the best is meant to win and prevail over all others. After all, there is only room for one on top of the lowly mountain.

The invasion of the two eastern regions of Ukraine was inevitable, as they were already categorized as war-torn territories that would soon be under Russian control. And the sanctions ensued by the West on Russia was apparent, as that is what the West promised initially. But to what end would such aggression last? And to whose benefit is it for such aggression to commence to even a potential full invasion of Ukraine? There is an old understanding that decisions are only taken after the damage has passed. Now that war has commenced and the damage has been done, the Russian president Vladimir Putin has fallen into a typical trap that most autocratic rulers end up in, after a long period of ruling undisputed; a war of ego and muscle flexing to prove that they are still strong and fearsome. Such wars are not based on intelligence, as the damage from it, even if victorious, far outweighs the benefits. “Leaders should lead as far as they can and then vanish. Their ashes should not choke the fire they have lit”, once said H. G. Wells.

Such a war will bring forth a series of unwanted and unfortunate events that will eventually set the stage for new alliances, new motives and a reignited hunger for war and conflict. World War III is in the making and certain countries, like the US are more than prepared for it, as they benefit from wars, unlike their Russian counterparts who have been economically bleeding dry from their coffers over a war that has taken more time than previously expected. And such conflicts brew further nationalism and hardcore ideological radicalism that only shuns our perceptions and darkens our senses to what is reasonable or logical. As this conflict heightens, Europe will begin to enter a long phase of militarism, which the German's recently announced they will dedicate 2% of their GDP on military build-up, while the French President, Macron, has returned to speaking of the necessity of a “European army”. As being witnessed, Europe will rally behind the US in order to get cover from the current superpower of the world, while Russia drowns further into an unnecessary conflict that will create strong bold heroes from Ukraine and will shake up the ranks within the Russian oligarchic bureaucracy that is only vocal when their fortunes are impacted, as is the case with the current withdrawal of Swift from Russia and the increase on interest rate hikes to 20% to supposedly maintain their faulty economy after the steep fall of their national currency, the Ruble. And while all this showdown takes place, China and Taiwan are silently watching a conflict that mirrors their own, if they were to break out their silence and go on each other’s throats. But it would also give China time and more importantly an urge to stake up and invest more in their military and technological capacities, while they begin to distance themselves gradually from Russia, so that they can prepare for an ultimate showdown with the US. For evidently two major powers, such as the US and China, will only be fated to clash as both have imperial ambitions to reign Supreme over the world, raising the alarm for what would the future of statehood look like and what would possibly happen to the current world order that stood more or less stable since the conclusion of the second World War. More importantly, such conflict will pave the way for corporations to reign in and gain more influence and power as they dictate the terms on how such wars would be managed to their benefit and how such corporations, whether they be tech or financial, would find the opportunity to outgrow the rustiness of nation-states, which was crafted by the Westphalian pact since 1648, ending the Western Powers destructive thirty years war.

As for the war that is consuming the lives of Ukrainians and all those that reside within these borders, their fate depends on the decisions and actions they take from now moving forward. The fear overtaking most of the population, along with the huge influx of migrants that are seeking shelter in the various Baltic or Balkan states, and with severe inflation hitting and martial law dominating the country, the country is entering a very different phase in its development that, if they manage to get out of this current situation, their views and path will be far different from what they were previously set about achieving prior to this ill-fated war. As for Putin’s current position, he has no other route to take but to keep pushing forward and eventually manage to invade most of Ukraine and subdue it, twisting the West’s arm to accept his terms, regardless if he will be hated for it or not. And if such invasion is successful, maintaining Ukraine would be very difficult that the potential division of the country, which echoes that of the break-up of Yugoslavia, would be a possible step taken by the Russian state. As if Putin decides to stop or retreat from this unnecessary war, then his own entourage and people will bring about his demise from the inside for having caused so much harm to their own economies, wellbeing and reputations. Whatever the outcomes may be from this war, the world is certainly returning to its much darker past of steeper division and a far more militarized vision.