Hypersonic Weapons and Conflicts. A Brief:

Hypersonic weapons will have various effects on conflicts since power possessing them will have the possibility to conduct nearly unlockable attack, provided that they are not disarmed by a pre-emptive strike. As with most new weapons, hypersonic weapons will be force multipliers, increasing the power of the wielding actor significantly and they will thus have profound effects if used in conflicts. First, I will explain what force multipliers are. Then, I will show how combination of precision-strike, stand-off and unblockability makes them force multipliers. Ultimately, I will briefly go through potential implications for various kinds of conflicts.

Hypersonic weapons are force multipliers. This means that they increase the offensive power of the wielder by a significant amount. An example of a force multiplier would be the air force during the Gulf War, which allowed the allies to easily defeat the army of million men with minimal casualties. Basically, the power of a force is multiplied several times thanks to the force multiplier thus being capable of defeating stronger adversaries easier. Hypersonic weapons are early unblockable precision weapons that can be used from stand-off ranges. This makes them very significant in any type of conflict, as any high-value target can be attacked and likely destroyed from a long range without the fear of retaliation against the platform.

Hypersonic weapons are a type of precision weapons. This makes them capable of striking high-value targets without the need for a large-scale assault and usage of massive amount of munition. For example, during the Gulf War, only 9% of munition fired was precision-munition, but it totalled to 5% of targets hit. This makes precision weapons very effective against both strategic and tactical targets, while avoiding collateral damage. As such, precision munition can in many cases completely replace tactical nuclear weapons. Their cost-effectiveness high rockets when used against high-value targets, like command centres. Furthermore, most hypersonic weapons are stand-off weapons.

Hypersonic weapons are usually stand-off weapons meaning that they can be fired from the distance from which the enemy cannot easily retaliate against a weapon. For example, ship launched Zircon should have a range of 600-1000km, which is similar to the envelope of the Nimitz Class Carrier’s air wing. Meanwhile, air launcher Kh-47M2 has the range of roughly 2000km, greatly exceeding the range of the same air wing. Strategic bomber launched AGM-183 ARRW will have a range in excess of 1000km, making it launchable from the distance is far greeted than engagement envelope of any SAM system and even outside the combat range of the MIG-31 interceptor aircraft. This means that hypersonic weapons are capable of striking targets even in depth of enemy territory while keeping the carrier safe from retaliation. However, unlike regular precision weapons, they are highly effective against belligerents with missile defence.

Many greater military powers have acquired missile defence, meaning that larger scale strikes are normally required, especially against high-value targets. However, hypersonic weapons are nearly unblockable, due to their speed and manoeuvrability. This means that a single one, or few at most can conduct the attack which required the usage of dozens if not more missiles in the past. As such, possession of even a singular hypersonic weapon is a significant threat to the adversary. Any of them have the potential to cause massive damage to any command centre, airbase, radar, or aircraft carrier within the range. This shows that hypersonic weapons are not stand-off precision weapons that cannot be reliably blocked. This means that hypersonic weapons are indeed force multipliers.

This can have various implications for any kind of conflict. While predicting all aspects is impossible, I can briefly outline some effects that are very likely depending on a scenario. For a great power war, they could cause massive conventional strategic damage. Strategic bombing of even the best defended areas would be possible, making the potential escalation quicker and likelihood of total war much easier. Even small rebel forces, if in the possession of such weapons, could utilize them against high-value targets of their adversaries. While their asymmetric properties make them highly useful, they also make them very dangerous, and potentially destabilizing if in hands of small forces. For example, a small insurgent force could cause massive damage to a military base, aircraft carrier, and even key strategic industrial points. This could significantly damage even great powers and risk escalation between great powers. These weapons have very high destructive potential and will be a powerful tool in any hands. Therefore, they will have profound effects on future conflicts.

It could be said that these weapons are Pandora’s Box. They will create a realm of new possibilities that state and non-state actors will be capable of utilizing. These will have the potential to change courses of action of political leaders and thus create rooms for new conflicts. On the other hand, they could be used as a deterrent and therefore prevent a conflict as even a smaller power can cause massive damage to more powerful opponent making the act of aggression less likely.

Overall, hypersonic weapons are force multipliers because they are unblockable, stand-off precision weapons. This allows them to cause very significant damage to any, including high-value targets. Because of that they could have profound effects on various kinds of conflicts and could be very destabilizing. Global governance over these weapons will need to be formed in order to limit destabilizing factors. Prospective hypersonic powers already rely on some regimes that can control the proliferation, but more will be required in the future.